From Ethiopia to India: the mines of economic growth up to 2020

The world on a double speed. In a context of political uncertainty, marked by the trade war conflicts or by the Brexit and tension situations like Venezuela, the global economy will rise 3.2% in 2019 and 3.5% in 2020, lower than expected, according to the latest previsions of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Amongst the markets that will improve more its development are Ethiopia, India and Cambodia.

 According to the institution, data from the Gross National Product (GNP) in what has passed of the year, added to a moderate inflation, a global activity weaker than expected. Investment and moderate demand of consumer goods, moving the expenses to a long term, have produced a slowest global growth, according to the IMF.

Despite the prevision of growth of 3.5% for 2020, the organization points that the rise is fragile and assumes the stabilization of the emerging markets economies that are going through tensions and progress towards the resolution of its conflicts surrounded by commercial politics.

This said, countries like India, Ethiopia or Cambodia, are the ones with the biggest rise up to 2020. Specially, the Indian economy with a rise of 7.3% at the end of 2019 and a rise of 7.5% in 2020.

The IMF lowered 0.1 percentual points its previsions of growth for the region, up to 3.6% in 2020

Ethiopia is also one of the markets with the better previsions for 2020, becoming one of the boosts for the sub-Saharan Africa. Specially the IMF, has forecasted a rise of 7.7% in 2019 and 7.5% in 2020.  

Despite everything, the IMB lowered 0.1 percentual points its previsions for the growth of the region, up to 3.6% in 2020, arguing that the “the vigorous rise of many countries that don’t depend in the natural resources is in part due to the weak development of bigger economies in the region”.

On the other hand, The Ivory Coast and Senegal are the other two African countries that will boost its economy in 2019 and 2020. Specifically, the GNP of the Ivory Coast will rise 7.5% in 2019 and in 2020. Senegal, on the other hand will rise its economy 6.9% in 2019 and 7.5% in 2020.

Other of the markets with the biggest rise will be Cambodia, which GNP will rise 6.8% in 2029, but it will slow down in 2020 up to 6.7%. The country will be one of the boosts in southeast Asia, which plans to arrive at 6.8% rise in 2019 and 7% in 2020.  

The IMF forecasts that the global economy grows 3.2% in 2019 and 3.5% in 2020  

The matures on the low

 In its last report, the IMF explains that in advanced economies, a rise of 1.9% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020 is projected. Specially the institution points that the GNP of United States will rise 2.6% in 2019 to moderate 1.9% in 2020.  

The eurozone in the other hand, IMF forecasts a rise of 1.3% in 2019 and 1.6 in 2020. Plus, the institution’s previsions for Germany are in the low due to a lower than expected external demand.

In Spain, previsions for the economy are on the use, with a growth of 2.1% in 2019 and 1.9% in 2020, as a reflection of the strong investment and the weakness of imports at the beginning of the year.

In France, the IMF forecasts that the economy rises 1.3% in 2019 and 1.4% in 2020 thanks to the back up of new fiscal measures, while the Italian economy is expected to grow 0.1% and 0.9% in 2019 and 2020, respectively.

After several months of tensions because of the Brexit, and after the arrival of the new prime minister Boris Johnson, to Downing Street, the IMF forecasts a growth of 1.3% in 2019 and 1.4% in 2020 for the British economy.