The International Monetary Fund (IMF) measures the consequences of a hard Brexit. In a report published today, the agency warns that the United Kingdom exit from the European Union will have an economic impact for the European Union (EU) of up to 1.5% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The ballast will be greater or lesser depending on the terms in which the exit of the country from the community block occurs.
The IMF points out in the document that “there will be no winners with Brexit”, indicating that all the empirical studies to date reach the same conclusion: the impact on the economy of both parties will be “considerable”.
On the other hand, if the United Kingdom maintains its access to the European single market despite leaving the customs union, the impact will be almost non-existent for the wealth of the EU, with a 0.06% GDP drop. On the other hand, the IMF estimates that if the subsequent relationship with the country led by Theresa May is governed by a free trade agreement, the Union will lose 0.8% of its GDP.
The labor market will also suffer negative consequences. In particular, the IFM predicts a 0.3% fall in EU employment if the future relationship is regulated by a free trade agreement and 0.7% with a hard Brexit.
Ireland is mentioned by the IFM as the most damaged country by the United Kingdom’s exit from the EU. The Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg are also among the most affected, due to their greater volume of trade with the country. In September, the IMF will publish a report detailing the economic impact for the UK of its exit from the European club.