Urban world: 9% of global population and 15% of GDP in 2030 will come from megacities

Asia, Africa and Latin America are consolidated as the three cradles of megacities. In the present day, the majority of these large cities, hosting more than ten million inhabitants, were focused in the Asiatic continent, but the tendency is that these sorts of cities proliferate now in Africa and the Latin American region. Jakarta, Tokyo, Karachi, Manila and Cairo will be the cities with higher number of citizens by 2030, according to Euromonitor.

The first two are also among the hundred best cities for fashion retail, as stated in the report Hot Retail Cities written by Modaes.es, with Tendam’s sponsorship and the collaboration of IE Business School. In this ranking, Jakarta occupies the position number 34 and Tokyo, the eighth one.

It is considered that New York was the first megacity in the world when during the fifties it exceeded for the first time ever the bar of ten million inhabitants. Shortly after that, Tokyo surpassed the number. They are large cities characterised by their social diversity, economic growth and high degree of innovation, although known also by their massification, traffic, pollution and social inequality.

Nowadays, 26 out of 33 megacities are located in developing countries and, during the next decade, these regions will continue going further. Five in six cities which will surpass the ten million inhabitants are among these countries. Today, Asia alone concentrates 19 of these huge cities.

It is predicted that, by 2030, there will be 39 megacities in the world. Bogota (Colombia), Chennai (India), Chicago (the United States), Luanda (Angola), Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) and Baghdad (Iraq) are the cities which will join that category twelve years from now. At that time in the future, it is calculated that there will be 30 megacities where 9% of the population will live and where 15% of the world’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will generate.

Asia and Africa, on the other hand, will be the continents whose cities grow at a bigger rate in future years. Lagos (Nigeria), Karachi (Pakistan), Cairo (Egypt), Tianjin (China), Dhaka (Bangladesh), Bangalore (India) or Manila (Philippines) lead the ranking of the cities that will grow the most in terms of population during the next twelve years. However, Tokyo and Osaka, two of the current megacities, will see their number of citizens reduce.

Megacities will advance faster in Asia and Africa during the next twelve years

The report by Euromonitor also highlights that these megacities will be the ones that concentrate economic growth in their respective countries. Thus, it will be Dhaka, Manila, Bangalore, Ho Chi Minh (Vietnam), Delhi (India), Mumbai (India), Tianjin (China), Shenzhen (China) and Karachi (Pakistan) the ones leading the list of cities that increase the most their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) until 2030. At the end of the list: London, Paris, Tokyo and Osaka.   

Nevertheless, the biggest productivity and the highest wages will continue to be in megacities with mature economies, the top ones being New York, Los Angeles, Paris, London and Tokyo. These megacities with advanced economies will also be the ones having a larger percentage of inhabitants over 65 years old. Osaka, concretely, will be the most aged city taking into consideration that 30% of its citizens will be older than 65 years old.

All these localities are in the highest parts of the ranking for the most appropriate cities where to open stores. Out of them, New York and Los Angeles rank on the list established by Hot Retail Cities at number one and two respectively. London, on its part, occupies the tenth position and Paris, the nineteenth. Osaka, on the other hand, is placed at number 51.